Brazilian Transvetist

Revolution!

In the last few days and weeks the world has banned the Arab world, primarily to North Africa, looked. have regimes that exists for decades, seemingly stable, have disappeared almost immediately and made a future course that is for all of us only in the making and no one can say at this stage how things will develop. Beginning of February is President Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for 30 years authoritarian (and the state of emergency since the assassination of Sadat never picked up), forced to resign. But what the future looks like, is still uncertain. The West is hoping for a democratic change, but he should in the not so sure. We must never forget the imponderables that are a typical characteristic of a revolution in mind. It was unwise of the European Union not to relate the time being no clear position. Finally, we know from history that what is not among those who are in a revolution that such a start, but those who quit. That was over 200 years ago so with the French Revolution. It was not the States-General, not even the radical and not even the moderate Jacobins, the Revolution finally ended, but the General Napoleon Bonaparte. But who would have more than a few years before he took office Consul und kurz darauf als Kaiser der Franzosen, vorausgesehen. Nein, in solchen Zeiten ist es ratsam sich zurückzuhalten, zu beobachten und seine Schlüsse zu ziehen, die vorerst geheim gehalten werden sollen (als gute historische Beispiele dienen Talleyand und Fouchè).
Die arabische Welt hat in den letzten Wochen sicher erfolgreich eine Befreiungsschlag gewagt, der in absehbarer Zeit auch zum Ende des libyschen Regime unter Gaddafi führen wird – das ist nur noch eine Frage der Zeit. Doch was kommt danach? Das ist die Frage, die für die Menschen außerhalb der Region das Entscheidende ist. Libyen lieferte bisher 1,6 Mio. Barrel Rohöl pro Tag. Das ist beträchtlich, doch auch ein Totalausfall des Landes ist für die Welt manageable (the daily consumption of the world is currently about 88 million barrels) though some local energy suppliers could not make irrelevant (OMV covers about 10 percent of its oil from Libya, which has been currently reduced to virtually zero). The oil price has tightened properly in the last day and now stands at just under 110 per dollars a barrel. In 2008 he stood in oil prices (mainly due to speculation and even before the financial crisis) to almost 150 dollars). If the crisis spread to Saudi Arabia, the world has a huge problem. Currently this is not to be feared, even in Iran there are still no signs of Volksaustand, only Yemen and Bahrain, it revolts However, the relative was resolved peacefully, or seem to be under control.
is the longer term, however, to expect great unrest throughout the Arab world and it would be an illusion of the West, if he believed that the world would agree to a procedure as before. In particular, the U.S. will have to cut back, and the European Union will cease to have no more of that weight in the world, as they previously enjoyed. It is to be welcomed in general, if the local populations show a stronger and beyond a global dominance. A globalized world in itself is not bad, but it should be something like power centers do not provide. Local Control is extremely important in a world that grows more and more together, and there is particular care to ensure that there is never a "world government" or a "world religion" there. While this may sound both seductive, but as a result of which the world would perish.
Another question that arises for me in the observation of the Arab peoples in these days, is that if this fighting spirit, this commitment vorhandne still among the nations in Europe and America would be. If the Europeans and the Americans stand up for their rights today, such as we have seen among people in the Middle East right now? I'm here so my Zweifel. Eine Abstumpfung, eine Stupidität schein eingetreten zu sein, die ein derart kraftvolles Vorgehen nicht mehr als allzu wahrscheinlich erscheinen lassen. Ich hoffe zutiefst, dass ich mich mit dieser Ansicht irrt! Die Zukunft wird uns viele Dinge offenbaren, die uns heute noch völlig unvorstellbar erscheinen. Nun ja, wir werden alle noch große Augen machen, davon bin ich überzeugt!